My Book Will Probably Fail … And So Will Yours
THERE IS A PRINCIPLE IN the universe called Price’s Law, after Derek J. de Solla Price. It’s a brutal law that doesn’t seem to make sense, but is pretty damn accurate across the board. Why is it that the richest 2% have more than the bottom 98% regardless of the governing body? It’s not a capitalist, or socialist, or communist, or any other ‘ist’ that’s responsible.
No matter how good you are at basketball, only a small percent will make it to the NBA and an even smaller percentage will stand out. Millions of people can fight, but very few will make it to the UFC. And boxing? When it comes to boxing, a tiny portion will make it to the top. Even if you are at the top of your game in boxing, nobody cares that you’re number 9 in the world. This is not just in the sporting world – the majority of scientific papers are published by a handful of scientists. Almost all commercial music is produced by a tiny portion of producers. Think of your classical musicians and who comes to mind … just a few composers – Tchaikovsky, Mozart, Beethoven, Bach, and almost all modern orchestras play their music. Even of those four, no matter how much they composed, only a few select pieces of their music is played. In a business, few sales people will land at the top, and few businesses will stand out in the world of economics.
We can go beyond the mere spectacle of human accomplishments to see this unequal distribution of wealth. In most states, a small number of cities have all the people. There is a vast amount of land in the United States, but in each state, most of the people live in a small area. There are over 170,000 words in the English language, but most of our conversation online or in person consists of the distribution of maybe 500 words, rearranged in regular conversation. In the vastness of space, solar systems take up a small portion of space itself, and even fewer of those heavenly bodies contain all the matter.
Millions of books are published each year, and less than a thousand will sell more than 100,000 copies annually, and even less than that will sell a million copies. As an artist, and someone who writes almost every damn day, I know that because of this principle, my chances of standing out are slim.
I’m a good artist. You might even say I’m a successful artist – I make a living selling art and writing, but I’m not a great artist. I have no international accolades, and beyond my small sphere, I’m relatively unknown.
My chances, and your chances of dominating the market and getting ahead are so slim, but it’s not zero and that’s what makes the journey so entertaining. Someone once said that the past is already completed, the future is unknown, and we’re always trying to fix the present. This is why we’re continually trying to improve ourselves and our situation -to traject ourselves forward. As long as your chance isn’t zero, why not give it all you’ve got? Zero is an interesting number in and of itself. If you have 1% chance of succeeding, at least you have a chance … but if you have zero chance, the game is over. Nothing comes from zero.
So even though I know the chances of my books selling a million copies, or ever getting them turned into a series on Netflix, is so minuscule, at least I have a chance. I have a wonderful support system, strong people in my life, and a drive to make it happen. Regardless of the small percentage of success, I’d rather set my trajectory towards a path that I find fulfillment and that I believe I’m supposed go, than to wander aimlessly in this life. Happiness is in the journey, not in the destination.
Will your book fail? Probably. So might mine. But you have a chance – it’s not zero – and that’s not something to take lightly.